Crude Oil Market Update

On December 4th, international crude oil prices continued their upward momentum, supported by a combination of monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments. Market sentiment was significantly boosted by growing investor expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may implement an interest rate cut in the coming months. A potential easing of monetary policy is generally viewed as positive for risk assets, including commodities such as crude oil, as lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity, weaken the U.S. dollar, and enhance demand prospects for energy products.

At the same time, geopolitical factors played a crucial role in reinforcing bullish sentiment in the oil market. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks remained at a stalemate, reducing market expectations that any European country would resume large-scale oil imports or restore disrupted energy flows in the near term. This uncertainty surrounding supply conditions in Europe heightened concerns over the stability of global oil supply chains, particularly as winter demand approaches. As a result, supply-side risks continued to provide strong support for international crude prices.

Against this backdrop, major global oil benchmarks closed higher. As of the close of trading on December 4th, January 2026 WTI crude oil futures rose by $0.72 to settle at $59.67 per barrel, representing a gain of 1.22% on the day. Meanwhile, February 2026 Brent crude oil futures increased by $0.59, closing at $63.26 per barrel, up 0.94%. The price spread between Brent and WTI remained relatively stable, reflecting balanced expectations regarding global supply and demand dynamics.

In the Chinese market, crude oil futures also followed the upward trend seen in international markets. China’s crude oil futures SC main contract 2601 closed up 2 yuan per barrel, settling at 451.3 yuan per barrel. The rise in domestic futures prices mirrored global price movements and underscored China’s increasing integration with international energy markets.

Looking ahead, market participants are expected to continue closely monitoring signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly upcoming economic data and policy statements that could influence interest rate expectations. In addition, developments in geopolitical negotiations, OPEC+ production policies, and global demand recovery will remain key drivers of oil price volatility. In the short term, a combination of supportive macroeconomic expectations and persistent geopolitical risks may keep crude oil prices on a relatively firm footing.