1. Latest Inventory Data of Polypropylene Manufacturers in China
1.1 Core Inventory Data
Major polypropylene manufacturers in China hold a total inventory of 680,000 tons in the current cycle.
The inventory rose by 30,000 tons or 4.62% week-on-week from the previous working day.
The current inventory is notably lower than the 755,000 tons recorded in the same period last year.
2. Current PP Spot Market Price Performance in China
2.1 Market Price Performance
China’s domestic PP spot price partially increased by RMB 50-150 per ton last trading day.
Overall market trading volume shrank obviously compared with the previous working session.
Rising overnight crude oil prices boosted PP futures and lifted traders’ market confidence.
Tight spot supply in the domestic market supported sellers’ firm pricing and price hikes.
Weak downstream order uptake and shrinking processing profits dampened market purchasing willingness.
Insufficient end-user demand restricted actual transactions and curbed further price rises.
3. Key Factors Affecting China PP Market Price Fluctuation
3.1 Demand Side Factors
Downstream operation rates stopped declining yet remained at a relatively low level.
Woven plastic, injection molding and BOPP industries posted 38%, 41% and 38% run rates.
The modified plastics industry maintained a relatively high operating rate of 62% currently.
Slight recovery in downstream operations failed to drive robust raw material procurement demand.
End-users only made small bargain purchases with low inventory replenishment willingness.
Slow new order growth reduced purchasing enthusiasm after PP spot prices moved up.
Limited actual transaction volume continued to put downward pressure on PP market prices.
3.2 Market Sentiment & Cost Factors
PP futures are likely to operate weakly, keeping most market traders in a wait-and-see mood.
International crude oil recorded its largest quarterly drop in six years amid weak bulk commodities.
Falling prices of propane and other raw materials completely weakened PP cost support.
Fading cost advantages and weak futures greatly reduced market bullish sentiment.
3.3 Supply Side Factors
Operating rates of domestic polypropylene manufacturers rose slightly to 65.46% currently.
The figure increased by 2.52% week-on-week with a mild growth in overall market supply.
Market supply increased marginally while spot circulation remained tight nationwide.
Output proportion of thin-wall injection and fiber PP grades is below the industry average.
Tight supply of mainstream grades underpins spot prices and limits sharp price declines.
4. China PP Market Trend Forecast (Zhuochuang Information)
4.1 Market Trend Forecast
China’s PP market is expected to run weakly in a narrow range amid mixed fundamental factors.
Continuous PP futures corrections will keep suppressing traders’ active trading sentiment.
Slumping crude oil prices eliminated cost support and reduced market stocking activity.
Downstream end-users hold high price concerns and only conduct rigid small-batch purchases.
Insufficient transaction volume enables limited downward momentum for PP spot prices.
Tight spot supply will act as a buffer and prevent sharp drops in domestic PP prices.
Over 60% of traders predict a mild price decline of RMB 50-100 per ton in the short term.
East China mainstream PP drawing grade price is forecast at RMB 7700-8000 per ton today.
